Hamas elected over Fatah

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4650788.stm

Well Hamas has picked up 76 seats in their parliament, pushing aside the previous Fatah regime that was largely seen as corrupt and ineffectual. But is this really surprising? Fatah's corruption was notorious and it would seem to be quite a predictable response accompanying the general hardening of attitudes around the globe. This is what happens when political moderates are not strengthened in a polarised and uncertain geopolitical environment.

Though some commentators have speculated that Hamas may benefit from a process of politicisation and legitimisation, it's a very long way off still. The composition of the party is still the Hamas of old, and there isn't the same kind of seperation between Sinn Fein and the IRA yet. Their political party manifesto may not call for the destruction of Israel, but the intention is still there large as life, in the form of their terrorist activities and their militant charter - all of which severly undermines their credibility.

The only theoretical benefit I can think of in the shorter term is that Hamas may be able to better control the religious militants, and strengthen their position at the negotiation table, than the more secular Fatah Party was able to do. But, of course, this assumes that Hamas is willing to negotiate and can maintain their power if they do separate their political efforts from violence, and indeed that Israel would be prepared to trust anything Hamas says regardless.

Coming back to the polarisation question, a lot of people cite Gaddafi on WMD as evidence of positive effects of US military action in Iraq, but it's an observation that ignores many of the ways in which the negative political fallout has been considerable. In many ways, this latest victory by Hamas can be seen as a predictable response, mimicking the trend we've already seen happen in Iran, and to some extent Egypt, post Iraq, where progressive forces have been sidelined by hardliners. As Iraqi 'democracy' grows closer and closer ties to the Iranian Mullahs, it is certainly an interesting time to be watching international politics.

Juan Cole has a decent piece on this here.